Modeling Scenarios of Territorial Communities Spatial Development

Abstract

The article substantiates the scenarios of spatial development of territorial communities on the basis of simulation modeling. A general scheme for modeling scenarios of territorial communities’ development is proposed, which involves the creation of a three-layer model. The core of the model is filled with substantive elements according to the type of territorial community. The middle loop includes the parameters of a particular territorial community. The outer loop implements a problem-based approach to community development and is responsible for including additional variables in the model. They characterize the current and desired state of socio-economic and environmental development of the community, problems, and risks. A flow-type simulation model has been developed, which includes blocks for modeling population and labor resources, use of natural resources, functioning of the life support infrastructure and economic infrastructure, functioning and development of the community economy and its financial capacity. Types of scenarios for the development of territorial communities in the early post-war period have been developed, taking into account the nature of the problems and the degree of impact of hostilities on the community: basic, recovery and development scenarios, which differ in the main direction of recovery, the degree of inertia of the community’s economic development and depend on the structure of its economy. The author proposes a methodological approach to assessing the feasibility of scenarios based on the application of the hierarchy analysis method, which opens up the possibility of creating combined scenarios that combine projects that best achieve local goals while simultaneously achieving the main goal.