Forecasting effectiveness of government measures regarding the economic development of Ukraine

Abstract

The protracted COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have caused a severe and profound crisis in Ukraine and colossal physical destruction. The restoration of the country, its economy, and the entire socio-economic system determine the urgency of providing predictive indicators to identify the fastest results. The purpose of the article was to forecast the effectiveness of the government’s economic policy based on the Mandel-Fleming model for the development of Ukraine’s economy. The paper used the method of analysis and synthesis and the system approach, the method of economic modeling, economic forecasting, mathematical and vector analysis, the graphic method, as well as the main provisions of the Mandel-Fleming macroeconomic model for open economics in the short term. The article proposes to forecast the effectiveness of government measures under the condition of using multipliers of the Mandela-Fleming model for Ukraine’s economic development after the deep socio-economic crisis caused by the war. In predict applied, chain schemes are presented that show the effectiveness of specific monetary and fiscal policy measures. An approach was proposed to forecast the effectiveness of implementing the government’s monetary and fiscal policy measures, taking into account positive or negative multiplicative coefficients according to the Mandel-Fleming model, depending on the exchange rate regime for the recovery of the economy and economic development of Ukraine. The research has an applied aspect and is suitable for use in the decision-making process by the government regarding the implemented economic policy.