The impact of the world economic crisis on the economic development of Ukraine

Abstract

The problem of the impact of the global economic crisis of the years 2007 – 2010 on the Ukrainian economy has been investigated. The impact of the global crises on the global economy and economic and political transformation of society has been analyzed. A methodological approach to the investigation of the impact of the crisis on the Ukrainian economy has been developed, which includes three main blocks: block 1, identifying the mechanisms of the crisis expansion in the Ukrainian economy; block 2, determining the impact of the crisis on the economy of Ukraine; block 3, investigating compensatory mechanisms for the localization of the crisis. Within the developed approach, the modern tools of economic-mathematical modelling have been used: the Granger test to determine the relationships between economic phenomena and VAR models for the study of the degree of influence of the global crisis on the national economy. The indicators of the development of the global financial market have been defined. The cause and effect of penetration of the global economic crisis to the economy of Ukraine and its spread through the financial market have been analysed. The lags of global fluctuations in the economy of Ukraine have been calculated, which provides the Ukrainian government with the time for response and localization of the impact of the global crisis on the national economy. The indicators of development of the national economy have been selected to achieve the goal of the research. The degree of the influence of the global economic crisis on the change in the national macroeconomic indicators, which causes more than 50 % of the indicator change, has been investigated. The compensatory mechanism for overcoming the global crisis in the Ukrainian economy has been determined which is attracting IMF credits. Analysis of the announced and attracted credits to the Ukrainian economy has been made. The perspective of the usage of this kind of mechanism in the economy of Ukraine and its shortcomings have been determined.